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 Can scientists predict the next earthquake? So far, no. Geologists can calculate the probability of a quake happening in an area based on how often quakes have struck there in the past. But that’s very different from being able to predict when one will happen.
Studying the San Andreas Fault
Time and time again, quakes have proven unpredictable. For more than 100 years, moderate-sized earthquakes have happened on the San Andreas Fault, near Parkfield, California, at fairly regular intervals.
Geologists began studying the fault near Parkfield in the hope of finding clues about how to predict the next quake, but the fault has managed to stay one step ahead.
Moderate-sized quakes occurred at this fault from 1857 to 1966 at intervals of 22 years, on average. So in 1985, geologists predicted that the next major quake would happen in 1988. It happened in 2004–16 years late.
Scientists are trying to solve the puzzle of predicting earthquakes, but it isn’t easy. In fact, it might be impossible.
Continue to Measuring Earthquakes. >>
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